Thursday, May 6, 2010

Amateur economics

Perhaps a more economically savvy and inclined reader could comment, but is it fair to say that some fraction of the recent decline of the US stock markets (excepting dramatic short-term spikes like the one this afternoon between 14:30 and 15:00 EDT) is not a "real" decline, but a reflection of the increased value of the dollar relative to the euro?  From what I can see, the euro has fallen about 8.5% against the dollar since mid March, and the US financial markets are actually down about 4% (mostly in the last week or two) over the same time period.  Naively, if dollars are worth more, one should see "deflation" on the dollar-denominated stock markets, I would guess....

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